With yet again a record setting 400 plus people already signed up and headed for Everest this year, the sheer volume of people in one place on Everest, at any one time is looking potentially more dangerous than ever.
There are few things more frightening on Everest than crowds – because more crowds lead to more uncertainty, with teams going up, down and sideways. Now the weather reports are also indicating a mix of snow followed by high winds in the heights which throws a high level of uncertainty into the mix right now.
Past tragedies have all involved a confluence of events, mistakes and decisions that compounded into some very unfortunate and largely avoidable outcomes. Then again, retrospective reviews are certainly easier than being in the moment of low oxygen, high tension, a storm and perhaps some less than experienced climbers.
Experienced teams with strong leaders will hopefully sort through the options, but being in the death zone allows very little time to make even the smallest mistake. And with climbers on Flash, Zoom and Xenon Gas ascents, if anything goes wrong up high the Flash may happen faster than ever expected.
Climbers have also taken to starting on oxygen at lower and lower altitudes. Where once it was a badge of honor to reach at least the South Col without Oz, many are seen creeping out of Camp 2 at 6,400 metres already fully armoured up in their oxygen face masks and sipping away.
Looking back over the last few years, the avalanche off the West Ridge of Everest into the Khumbu Icefall in 2014, resulted in 16 deaths. The earthquake driven avalanche in 2015 killed 19 at Everest Base Camp. The human tragedy and loss in those moments was immense, and condolences to all those involved.
Popular photographs of the conga-line of climbers traversing the Lhotse Face en-route to the South Col, and a crowd of people swarming the Hillary step are common occurrences every year now.
Having more people around also builds a sense of security for the less experienced as they think, “everybody else is heading up, why shouldn’t I?”
With the rising crowds, the traditional dangers of individual risk on Everest: falling off, altitude, ice hitting a single climber or two, are at the same level as always. Or perhaps a bit greater due to the rapidily changing conditions on Everest with climate change.
Yet as we saw in the last few years, the level of risk for a mass event has risen dramatically.
What we have to think about now is not where 5 or 10 people are, but the 100’s currently traversing the unstable slopes inside the icefall and then higher on the mountain and crawling nose-to-tail up the Lhotse Face in an infinite line. With eventually hoards of people heading out from the South Col, it is kind of beyond imagination.
I remember a disco-like line of headlamps following us up off the South Col towards the balcony one year and into a storm. As the wind increased and soon filled with drifting snow, a few climbers in front of us descended down into our group, all climbing on the single fixed line, piling over the top of each other.
Soon we made the same decision to descend and the turmoil on the ropes, those going up, those going down, and those sitting down to make a decision soon created a chaotic mass of humanity, at 8,300 meters, in the dark and the storm. It was only sorted out when with an extra rush of wind and storm, barrelling across the ridge in the dark of night, blew any remaining undecided climbers back down the hill, so at least we were all headed in the right direction.
Above the South Col, the numbers of people on one set of anchors climbing one single strand of rope puts a lot of trust in a very small and potentially fallible system.
A pulled anchor, an extra sharp crampon point inadvertently stabbed into the rope by an unbalanced climber, an ascender that fails to grip on an icy rope and strips the climber and all those below off, or a rock fall that takes someone out – all will generate forces that single ropes and well spaced out anchors won’t even begin to keep anyone attached to the mountain, let alone 50 or more.
On Everest, the physics for the anchors and ropes, have simply started to defy logic.
While improvements are continually being made, with additional anchors, multiple ropes and fixing teams in charge, the sheer numbers of people, in very dangerous places, is impossible to ignore.
Taking that technology to the next level, we could always just pull the Khumbu Icefall out of the occasion, and helicopter to Camp II as Nimsdai has done, defying existing regulations. Though I’d certainly be in agreement with Conrad Anker when he writes:
“Yet as dangerous as the icefall is, it is an intrinsic part of the Everest experience. You boot up, say your prayers, and hope that the ice is calm. No amount of experience can make up for being in the wrong place at the wrong time. It is very dangerous, but it is also unspeakably beautiful.”
Even a storm like what happened in 1996, a year when 11 died, and was considered especially horrific, spawning both the best selling Into Thin Air and the “Everest” movie, will pale in comparison when another storm like that sweeps through again.
The late David Breashears in the Western CWM, with a photo comparing snow and terrain in 1953 to the present day. As he commented as we stood there: “Robert, none of us would have ever climbed up here through the Icefall if it wasn’t Everest.” Photo: Robert Mads Anderson
This year has seen relatively dry forecasts and yet the winds are still rising above levels considered ideal. This week, on the weather algorithms from Mountain Forecast, all looks very climbable – but if you are getting the more detailed and far more in depth reports from Marc de Keyser at Weather4expeditions.com you will see a much higher level of variability over the next few days.
Multiple deaths on Everest are not of course new. In 1922, in the first recorded fatalities, 7 sherpas died in an avalanche below the North Col. But where there was one team and a handful of climbers. Several hundred will be climbing through similar altitudes this season.
There is also now the option of the Flash ascent, which has seen some success in recent years, by pre-acclimatizing and then moving quickly up the mountain. But as Mark Horrell states, success can sometimes be more luck with the weather on Everest than any other factor.
There are certainly advantages to spending less time at altitude, but if it also means you are less well acclimatized and simply are using more oxygen up high and something goes wrong as it does occasionally, you had better save the strength to gallop down the mountain as fast as you can. Galloping down is often an under rated skill on big mountains, and where experience can often be a life-saving benefit.
The lure of Everest is irresistible to many, whether deemed foolish or not. Nothing really quite matches getting to the top of the world on a good day.
But it would be foolish of us to ever consider it safe. There is no safety in numbers on Everest.
Of course it does beg the question: is there any way to make it safer? Many ways, but that is a topic I’ll work on for another day. In the meantime, it is simply a matter of Fear, Fitness and Faith.
Sibusisu Vilane and I on top, who along with David Hamilton, shared a rare moment on our own at the top of the world. Made all the more special as it was the first time up for all of us. Sibu went on to summit from the North side as well, while David completed an incredible 10 successful ascents, all when he was guiding. Photo: David Hamilton.